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Artimųjų Rytų sukarpymas įžengė į praktinį etapą

       Konfliktų, kurie krečia taip vadinamų Didžiųjų Artimųjų Rytų valstybes, slapta prasmė vis labiau išlenda į paviršių. Jeigu „arabų pavasario“ pačioje pradžioje tik atskiri nutekėjimai liudijo apie tai, kad kai kuriose Vakarų sostinėse yra valstybinių sienų regione sukarpymo planai, tai dabar, matyt, viskas jau nuėjo taip toli, kad šis klausimas jau įtraukiamas į tarptautinę darbotvarkę.

        Buvęs NSA ir ČŽV vadovas prie JAV prezidento Džordžo Bušo jaunesniojo – Maiklas Haidenas (Michael Hayden) neseniai interviu „Le Figaro“ tiesiai pasakė: „Pažiūrėkime tiesai į akis: Irakas daugiau neegzistuoja, Sirija neegzistuoja. Libanas beveik nugalėtas, tikriausiai, taip pat, kaip Libija. 1916 metų Saikso-Piko sutartys, Europos didžiųjų valstybių iniciatyva šias valstybes išdėsčiusios žemėlapyje, niekada neatspindėjo tikrovės... Aš nežinau, kur mes einame. Bet aš galvoju, kad politika, kuria siekiama atgaivinti šias valstybes, pasmerkta nesėkmei... Gali būti, Jungtinėse Tautose yra Irako ir Sirijos atstovybės, bet pačios šios valstybės jau išnyko“.   

       Tokio atviro pasaulio perdalinimo toje jo dalyje dar nesigirdėjo. A.M.Haidenui prognozuoja svarbų vaidmenį Džebo Bušo –vieno iš galimų respublikonų kandidatų į JAV prezidento postą 2016 metais - tarptautinininkų komandoje. Galima sakyti, kad demokratai prie B.Obamos išpureno dirvą, o respublikonai rengiasi rinkti iš jos derlių. Haidenas kol kas neskuba konkretizuoti perdalijimo planus, bet įdomu, kad pagrindine JAV sąjungininkų jėga regione jis siūlo padaryti kurdus. Be to, kaip atsvarą radikaliam islamui Haidenas mato Egipto prezidentą as-Sisi; buvęs NSA ir ČŽV vadovas yra už Vašingtono visaverčio karinio bendradarbiavimo su Kairu atkūrimą.

       Buvęs Izraelio Nacionalinio saugumo tarybos vadovas, o dabar vienas iš autoritetingiausių Izraelio strategų generolas majoras Jakovas Amidroras parengė viešą  ataskaitą „Idealus štormas: chaoso Artimuosiuose Rytuose pasekmės“, kurioje teigia, kad dėl sukrėtimų faktiškai savo egzistavimą nutraukė „kai kurios prieš šimtą metų britų ir prancūzų dirbtinai sukurtos valstybės, o kai kurios iš jų artėja prie savo žlugimo“. Daugelyje Artimųjų Rytų vietų gyventojai save identifikuoja remdamiesi ne valstybine, o gentine ir religine priklausomybe. Iš esmės dabar vyksta kova ne tik už arabų tautos, bet ir viso islamo pasaulio ateitį. Aišku, kad šį procesą paveikti „reikalinga kryptimi“ bus labai sunku, ir „Izraelis turi būti labai atidus“, neleisti savęs įtraukti į „regionines perturbacijas“.

       Amidroro nuomone, rimtas Vakarų politikos trūkumas yra trumpalaikis strateginis planavimas vienam pasirinktinam ciklui, kai tuo tarpu Islamo kalifato šalininkai pasirengę  ilgalaikei kovai. JAV, išprovokavusios „arabų pavasarį“, visai nedega noru apmokėti visas jos pasekmes, o tuo labiau prisiimti už jas atsakomybę. Jos labiau linkusios veikti nuotoliniu būdu ir daugiausiai naudojant įvairias manipuliacijas. Tačiau pasirodo, kad to nepakanka. Daugelis regiono lyderių atvirai yra nusivylę Amerika, tai daug kuo ir paaiškinami Saudo Arabijos gestai Rusijos pusėn. Egzistuoja tikimybė, kad galiausiai islamo radikalai taps dominuojančia jėga visame musulmonų pasaulyje. Izraelio strategas išsako nuomonę, kad kai kurie arabų režimai, atsidūrę prieš žlugimo grėsmę, regiono stabilumo atramą gali pamatyti net Izraelyje, kas, žinoma, sustiprins jo padėtį.

       Kartu daugelis veikėjų Izraelyje mano, kad tokia pozicija yra pernelyg nuosaiki ir pasisako už ryžtingesnius pasikeitimus. Visų pirma, vyriausybės sekretorius 2009-2013 metais Cvi Hauzeris mano, kad pirmą kartą per pusę amžiaus atsirado galimybė pradėti  dialogą dėl valstybės sienų pakeitimo Artimuosiuose Rytuose ir gauti Izraelio suvereniteto Golano aukštumose tarptautinį pripažinimą. „Reikia apsvarstyti galimą tarpusavio supratimą su tarptautine bendruomene dėl teritorijų nuo Kuneitros iki Kinereto statuso pakeitimo, plačiąja prasme regiono stabilizavimo“. Pagrindas – šios erdvės apsauga nuo „Islamo valstybės“ ir džihadistų iš „al-Nusra Dzhabhat“. Štai ir prašau, dėl kieno interesų veikia nurodytos organizacijos? Be to, tokie svarstymai reiškia, kad Golano prijungimas prie Izraelio gali būti savotiška kompensacija jam už galimą Irano  branduolinės programos sandorį.

       Turkijos ir Jordanijos armija rengiasi įeiti į Sirijos teritoriją turint tikslą sukurti ten išsitęsusias „buferines zonas“ dėl „gynybos nuo ISIS“ šiaurėje ir pietuose. Kiek gali tęstis šių zonų okupacija ir ar nesukels ji faktinės šių teritorijų aneksijos, Ankaroje ir Amane nekalba. Pagal Izraelio šaltinių informaciją, Izraelio karinės oro pajėgos, JAV ir kitos NATO šalys pasirengusios suteikti karinę oro pagalbą įsiveržimui. Žaidime aplink Siriją Vakarai eina link endšpilio: jeigu pradžioje kartu su Sirijos kaimynėmis buvo sukurta islamistų grėsmė jos valstybingumui, tai dabar gynybos nuo šios grėsmės dingstimi rengiama intervencija ir galutinis valstybės padalinimas.

       Tačiau pagrindinių žaidėjų, kurie suinteresuoti sukarpyti Artimųjų Rytų politinį žemėlapį, interesai ne visai sutampa. Pavyzdžiui, Turkija labai atsargiai žiūri į visus projektus, kurie susiję su kurdų valstybingumu ir netrokšta palaikyti šiuos projektus stimuliuojančius amerikiečius. Neseniai Turkijos prezidentas Redžepas Erdoganas pasakė, kad Ankara atmeta Sirijos Kurdistano nepriklausomybės galimybę. „Turkija nepripažins naujos valstybės, jeigu ji bus sukurta šiaurės Sirijoje arba prie Turkijos pietinių sienų, ir mes esame prieš bet kurį projektą, kuris yra nukreiptas tokios valstybės sukūrimui“. Ankara toliau puoselėja tiurkų planus, nepaisant to, kad nėra pakankamų resursų jų įgyvendinimui.

       Kaip atsvarą kurdų projektui Sirijoje Turkija iškėlė visų gyvenančių toje valstybėje tiurkų tautų (nuo Anatolijos iki Centrinės Azijos) apjungimo idėją. Šiais tikslais Turkijos Gaziantepėje įvyko Sirijos turkmėnų bendruomenių atstovų susirinkimas. Jie nusprendė suformuoti karinę tarybą, kuri atsiskaitinės Asamblėjai. Pavyzdžiui, teigiama, kad Sirijoje yra iki  3 milijonų turkmėnų, nors oficiali statistika skaičiuoja tik 100 tūkst. šios etninės gupės atstovų lyginant su 2 milijonais kurdų. Padidintas turkmėnų skaičius gali būti panaudotas atitinkamoms teritorinėms pretenzijoms iškelti. Šiuo metu Turkijos Generalinis štabas bando sukurti atskirą „turkmėnų armiją“ Sirijoje, panaudojant būrius, kurie iki šiol neįėjo į Ankaros globojamą opozicijos „Sirijos laisvės armiją“. Manoma, kad  ji turės iki 10 tūkst. žmonių ir kovos tiek su „Islamo valstybe“, tiek ir Sirijos kurdais.

       Kitos nepavykusios valstybės, pagal amerikiečių terminologiją, – Irako- atžvilgiu įžvelgiamas palaipsnis jo sunitų dalies perdavimas nuosekliausiam Vašingtono arabų sąjungininkui regione – Jordanijai. Neseniai JAV Kongresas patvirtino įstatymo projektą trims metams, kuris numato reikšmingos karinės pagalbos Amanui suteikimą ir jo prilyginimą šalims, įeinančioms į NATO. Dabar Hašimitų karalystės kreipimasis į Vašingtoną dėl pagalbos bus nagrinėjamas pagal pagreitintą procedūrą. Šiandien tokį statusą už Šiaurės Atlanto aljanso ribų turi tik Izraelis, Australija, Japonija, Pietų Korėja ir Naujoji Zelandija.  

       Visų šių projektų įgyvendinimas yra atskira tema. Aišku tik tai, kad jie kol kas yra „ant kortos“, Artimieji Rytai ir toliau bus vienas iš sprogiausių pasaulio rajonų.

       ŠBO ir BRICS aukščiausio lygio susitikimuose Ufoje nuskambėjo, kad Eurazijos erdvės neturi tapti geopolitinių žaidimų lauku. Ir jeigu šiaurės rytų Eurazija bendromis to makroregiono valstybių pastangomis sulaiko „didžiosios šachmatų lentos“ žaidimo mėgėjus, tai pietvakarių Eurazijai (Didieji Artimieji Rytai) gresia didelio masto sukarpymas. Atlaikyti šią grėsmę galima tik bendromis abiejų Eurazijos dalių valstybių pastangomis, esant glaudžiam bendradarbiavimui ir suartėjimui. Kai kurie iš kelių buvo numatyti Ufoje. Tas kelias yra erškėčiuotas, bet garantuoti taiką ir saugumą Eurazijoje galima tik nueinant kelią iki pabaigos.

Dmitri‘jus Minin‘as, 2012-07-13

Šaltinis: Fondsk

Komentarai

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