Doleris ir karas

       JAV dolerį jau daug kartų laidojo, bet jis vis dar gyvas. Breton Vudso pinigų sistemos žlugimo išvakarėse dolerio dalis pasaulio valiutų atsargose artėjo prie 80% (1970 m. – 77,2%; 1972 m. – 78,6%). Po to, perėjus prie Jamaikos pinigų sistemos, ji pamažu mažėjo ir 1995 metais pasiekė žemiausią lygį - 59,0%. Esant finansinės globalizacijos bangai doleris vėl sustiprėjo (1999-2001 m. jo dalis pasiekė 70-71%), bet po to dolerio lyginamasis svoris tarptautinėse valiutų atsargose vėl sumažėjo – iki žemiau kaip 61% lygio 2014 metais. Nepaisant to, tai yra daugiau nei 1995metų rodiklis.

       Pagal Tarptautinių atsiskaitymų banko duomenis, 2010 metų balandyje dolerio dalis operacijose tarptautinėje valiutų rinkoje buvo 84,9%, tai 2013 metų balandyje ji išaugo iki 87. Palyginimui: per tą patį laikotarpį euro dalis krito nuo 39,1 iki 33,4%. Į akis krenta disproporcija tarp dolerio padėties pasaulio finansuose ir JAV padėties pasaulio ekonomikoje. Šiandien JAV dalis pasaulio BVP yra maždaug 20%. Pagal BVP dydį Kinija jau pralenkė JAV (skaičiuojant pagal valiutų perkamosios galios paritetą), bet juanio dalis pasaulio valiutų rinkos operacijose 2013 metų balandyje buvo tik 2,2%. Tikslių duomenų apie juanio dalį pasaulio valiutų atsargose nėra, bet ekspertų vertinimai rodo, kad ji šiek tiek didesnė už 1%.

       Šios disproporcijos labai primena XIX a. pabaigos – ХХa. pradžios pasaulinę ekonomikos  panoramą. Tais laikais įvyko pasaulio ekonomikos lyderių persigrupavimas. Pagal pramonės ir žemės ūkio produkcijos dydį į pirmą vietą išėjo Jungtinės Valstijos. Pagal kai kurias pozicijas į antrą vietą pradėjo išeiti Vokietija. O Didžioji Britanija, kuri XIX a. didžiąją dalį turėjo „pasaulio dirbtuvės“ statusą, pradėjo ristis į trečią vietą pasaulyje. Tuo pačiu Didžiosios Britanijos svaras sterlingų, kaip ir anksčiau, liko pasauline valiuta, kuri vykdė rezervinės priemonės ir tarptautinių atsiskaitymų priemonės funkcijas. Štai pasaulio atsargų pagal valiutų rūšis struktūra Pirmojo pasaulinio karo išvakarėse, 1913 metais (%): svaras sterlingų - – 47; Prancūzijos frankas – 30; Vokietijos markė – 16; JAV doleris – 2; kitos valiutos – 5 (Officer, Lawrence H. „Between the Dollar-Sterling Gold Points: Exchange Rates, Parity, and Market Behavior“. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1996). Kaip matome, JAV dolerio dalis buvo labai nereikšminga. Disproporcija tarp JAV ekonominio išsivystymo ir dolerio pozicijų pasaulio finansų sistemoje buvo maždaug tokia pati, kaip šiandien disproporcija yra tarp Kinijos ekonominio išsivystymo ir juanio padėties.

       Pasaulio bankininkams, kurie pastatė ant dolerio, prieš šimtą metų buvo reikalingas pasaulinis karas, kad doleris galėtų užimti vietą po saule. 1913 metais JAV Kongresas, spaudžiamas „pinigų maišų“, balsavo už Federalinės rezervų sistemos sukūrimą, kuri 1914 metais pradėjo leisti dolerį, kaip JAV bendrą valiutą, o po pusmečio prasidėjo pasaulinis karas. Karas pakeitė pagrindinių didžiųjų valstybių jėgų ir jų valiutų santykį. 1928 metais pasaulinių valiutų atsargų pasiskirstymas atrodė taip (%): svaras sterlingų – 77; JAV doleris – 21; Prancūzijos frankas – 2. (Officer, Lawrence H.). Tai yra svaras sterlingų, nepaisant smarkaus Didžiosios Britanijos ekonomikos susilpnėjimo, ne tik nesusilpnino savo padėties, bet netgi papildomai sustiprėjo. JAV doleris gerokai padidino savo lyginamąjį svorį lyginant su 1913 metais ir užtikrintai užėmė antrą vietą. Kitos valiutos – konkurentės išėjo iš distancijos. Siekiant galutinai nugalėti Didžiosios Britanijos svarą sterlingų, FED šeimininkams teko parengti ir organizuoti dar vieną pasaulinį karą, po kurio doleris buvo prilygintas auksui ir iš esmės tapo vienintele pasauline valiuta.   

                                                              * * *

       Šiuo metu formaliai dolerio padėtis pasaulyje yra nebloga, bet Federalinės rezervų sistemos pagrindinių akcininkų negali netrikdyti tai, kad disproporcija tarp JAV BVP ir dolerio padėties didėja. Doleris tampa vis labiau nestabiliu. Norint keletas didelių valstybių gali koordinuoti savo pastangas, suvienyti išteklius, pradėti dolerio atsargų nusimetimą ir sužlugdyti dolerį. Bet FED šeimininkų jėga tame, kad jie visada mokėjo aktyviai veikti. Štai ir dabar yra daug požymių, kad jie imasi praktinių žingsnių dolerio apsaugai ir pirmiausia didelio karo parengimui. Tokio karo sukėlimui „pinigų savininkai“ (FED spausdinimo mašinos savininkai) turi keletą priežasčių.

       1.Spausdinimo mašinos savininkams reikia palaikyti savo produkcijos paklausą ir kainą. Savanoriškas „bėgimas paskui dolerį“ Europoje pasibaigė daugiau kaip prieš pusę amžiaus. Racionalių ekonomikos paskatų įsigyti dolerius pasaulyje nesimato. Juk dolerių masė, išeinanti iš FED spausdinimo mašinos, šiandien daug kartų viršija viską, kas sukuriama JAV ekonomikoje. O JAV aukso atsargos, nors ir didžiausios pasaulyje (daugiau kaip 8000 t), padengia tik „žaliųjų“ visos masės procento dalis. Lieka viena: visam pasauliui primesti „prekę“, kurią gamina Federalinis rezervas, jėga. Šiandien vienintelis dolerio užtikrinimas yra JAV Ginkluotosios pajėgos, kurių pagrindinė funkcija yra garantuoti paklausos „žaliajam popieriui“ palaikymą. Jungtinėse Valstijose klasikinis karinis pramoninis kompleksas (KPK) jau seniai transformavosi į karinį bankinį kompleksą (KBK).

       Po Breton Vudso pinigų sistemos žlugimo į jos vietą atėjo Jamaikos pinigų sistema, kuri  yra naftos dolerio sistema, nes 8 –ame dešimtmetyje įvyko dolerio pririšimas prie juodojo aukso (naftą pradėjo pardavinėti tik už dolerius). Nafta iki šiol išlieka dolerio sistemos pagrindu. Nors šiandien Amerika jau beveik nepriklauso nuo naftos importo, bet ji kontroliuoja naftą išgaunančias valstybes. Kontrolės tikslas yra neleisti juodojo aukso prekyboje pereiti prie kitų, nei doleris, valiutų. Dėl to esant reikalui Vašingtonas imasi karinių veiksmų naftos išgavimo regionuose. Pirmiausia, Artimuosiuose ir Viduriniuose Rytuose. Muamaras Kadafis buvo nuverstas ir žiauriai nužudytas dėl to, kad iš pradžių atsiskaitymuose už naftą nuo dolerio perėjo prie euro, o po to planavo pereiti prie auksinio dinaro.

       2. Kai JAV doleris pradeda kristi, Amerika įtraukia visus svertus silpnėjančio dolerio sustiprinimui (politinių situacijų įvairiose pasaulio dalyse destabilizavimo operacijos; pilietiniai ir regioniniai karai). Šiuo požiūriu Amerika, nepaisant jos didėjančios ekonomikos degradacijos, tampa dirbtine „stabilumo sala“. Kapitalai iš įvairių pasaulio kampelių pradeda eiti į Ameriką, padidindami „žaliojo popieriaus“ kursą. Kam Amerikai reikalingas aukštas dolerio kursas? Atsakyti yra nesunku.

       Pirmiausia, JAV gauna pigaus importo galimybę, kuris užtikrina vidaus vartojimą. Spausdinimo mašina kartu su pervertintu JAV piniginio vieneto kursu yra ideali sąlyga valstybės -parazito egzistavimui. 

       Antra, padedant brangiam doleriui, Amerika (tiksliau FED savininkai) gauna galimybę  visame pasaulyje pigiai supirkti gamtos išteklius, įmones, nekilnojamą turtą, kitą turtą. Susiklosčiusi dolerio sistema FED savininkams bus reikalinga iki tol, kol visas pasaulis nepereis į jų kontrolę.

       3.„Pinigų savininkams“ (FED pagrindiniams savininkams) gali būti reikalinga ne tik regioninė, bet ir pasaulinė destabilizacija, tai yra pasaulinis karas. Toks destabilizavimas gali sunaikinti arba mažiausiai susilpninti visas potencialias Amerikos konkurentes. Vašingtonui (tiksliau Federaliniam rezervui) reikalingas tik monocentrinis pasaulio modelis. Be didelio karo šio modelio nepastatysi. Pasaulinis karas leis išspręsti daugelį Amerikos ekonomikos problemų, kurios artimiausiu metu gresia tapti kritinėmis.  

       Pavyzdžiui, 2013 metų pabaigoje JAV valstybės skola jau buvo 104,5%. O štai Europoje, kuri jau keletą metų išgyvena skolų krizę, šis rodiklis yra mažesnis. 2013 metų pabaigoje euro zonos šalių rodiklis buvo lygus 92,6%. Ne mažiau aktuali Vašingtonui yra užsienio skolos problema. 2014 metų rugpjūtyje šios skolos santykinis lygis pasiekė 107% BVP. Skolų tvarkymui tenka išleisti vis didesnę pajamų dalį. Šiandien JAV biudžeto išlaidose valstybės skolos procentai nėra dideli (apie 7%), bet juk ir palūkanų normos JAV ekonomikoje dėl kiekybinio palengvinimo (QE) programos buvo grynai simbolinės. QE programa nutraukiama, išlaidos valstybės ir visų kitų skolų tvarkymui smarkiai išauga. Esant tokiai situacijai JAV valdantieji sluoksniai tikriausiai prisimena šimto metų senumo istoriją. Pirmojo pasaulinio karo išvakarėse Amerika užėmė jau pirmą vietą pagal pramonės gamybą, bet tuo pačiu turėjo didžiulę užsienio skolą (pirmiausia, Didžiajai Britanijai). Pirmasis pasaulinis karas kardinaliai pakeitė situaciją. JAV tapo stambiausia tarptautine kreditore. Tuo pačiu metu jos pagrindinės sąjungininkės kare – Didžioji Britanija ir Prancūzija – tapo stambiausiomis Amerikos skolininkėmis. Pagal Antrojo karo rezultatus Amerika sukaupė 70%pasaulio aukso atsargų (be Sovietų Sąjungos). Toks JAV sustiprėjimas ir leido legalizuoti dolerio, kaip pasaulinės valiutos, padėtį (tarptautinės konferencijos Breton Vudse 1944 metais sprendimai).

       Tuo atveju, jeigu JAV sugebės tapti trečiojo pasaulinio karo vienintele beneficiare (naudos gavėja), senų skolų problema išnyks savaime. Tada Vašingtonas galės vienašališkai iš savo balanso nurašyti kitų valstybių skolas,  savo nuožiūra nustatydama, kurios valstybės yra „kaltos“ dėl karo. „Kaltų“ valstybių piniginiai reikalavimai Amerikai anuliuojami pagal apibrėžimą, būtent taip elgėsi Antantės šalys Vokietijos atžvilgiu 1919 metų Paryžiaus taikos konferencijoje. Be to, Amerika, kaip laimėtoja, galės „kaltoms“ valstybėms paskirti reparacijas ir kontribucijas. Panašiai, kaip tai padarė Antantės šalys toje pačioje konferencijoje Paryžiuje 1919 metais.

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       Trečiasis pasaulinis karas iš esmės bus kitoks nei pasauliui iki šiol buvo žinoma. Jis prasidės be oficialaus paskelbimo. Ir nors mes iki galo to dar nesuvokiame, bet karas greičiausiai jau prasidėjo. Panaudojant samdinius (privačias karines kompanijas), pasiremiant penkta kolona atskirų valstybių viduje, aktyviai panaudojant „maidano” technologijas, įtraukiant Vašingtono kontroliuojamą žiniasklaidą, paskelbiant ekonomines sankcijas ir t.t. Šis nepaskelbtas karas vykdomas su kovos prieš terorizmą, „radikalų islamą“, „Rusijos agresiją“, žmogaus teisių pažeidimą ir t.t., ir pan. vėliava.    

       Tokio nepaskelbto pasaulinio karo metu „pinigų savininkai“ (FED akcininkai) spręs susikaupusias dolerio problemas. Pavyzdžiui, su kovos prieš terorizmą ir „nešvarius pinigus“ vėliava JAV gali įvykdyti „pinigų reformą“. Jos esmė labai paprasta. FED išleidžia naujus dolerius ir organizuoja jų mainus į seną „žaliąją masę“. Be to, senų dolerių pateikėjai turi pateikti patikimus jų kilmės teisėtumo įrodymus. Kontrolės filtrai gali būti tokie griežti, kad senų dolerių liūto dalis nepraeis „egzamino“ ir pavirs į šiukšles. Taip bus pašalinta „dolerio lubų“, kurios slegia dėdę Semą, problema. Tačiau JAV ir tas variantas yra neidealus – viso pasaulio vienkartinis apvogimas kitas valstybes gali pastūmėti tarptautiniuose atsiskaitymuose naudoti savo nacionalines valiutas, sukurti regionines valiutas, visiškai atsisakyti dolerio.

       Todėl trečiajame nepaskelbtame pasauliniame kare gali būti panaudoti ir kiti ekonominiai metodai. Pavyzdžiui, nepaisant to, kad „žalioji masė“ užpildė visą pasaulį, dolerio perkamoji galia prekių rinkose yra pakankamai didelė. Jokios hiperinfliacijos grėsmės nesimato. Viskas labai paprasta. Spausdinimo mašinos visos produkcijos liūto dalis eina į finansų rinkas. Tačiau yra 101 būdas sumažinti arba net visiškai likviduoti tas pačias finansų rinkas. Tada visa „žalioji masė“ plūstelės į prekių rinkas. Kils hiperinfliacija, prilyginama tai, kurią patyrė Veimaro respublika ХХ amžiaus 3 –ojo dešimtmečio pradžioje. Geriausiu atveju iš dabartinio dolerio perkamosios galios liks 1%.Katastrofa?  Kaip pažiūrėsi. Juk tokiu atveju trilijonų dolerių turėtojų visame pasaulyje rankose liks vien tik šiukšlės. Tik Kinijos oficialiosios tarptautinės atsargos jau viršijo 4trilijonus dolerių, be to, „žaliajam popieriui“ tenka mažiausiai 1/3. Po to Amerika vykdo pinigų reformą ir įveda naują visavertį dolerį. Maždaug prieš penkerius metus buvo aktyviai svarstoma tokios „pinigų reformos“ galimo vykdymo problema, tik vietoje naujo dolerio tada pranašavo piniginį vienetą, kurio pavadinimas „amero“. Buvo manoma, kad tai bus trijų valstybių –JAV, Kanados ir Meksikos bendra valiuta. Dolerio pakeitimo į „amero“ variantas dar gali būti reanimuotas, bet iš Vašingtono pareikalaus labai rimto jėgos užtikrinimo. 

        Bet kuriuo atveju tikėtis, kad susilpnės nestabilumas pasaulyje, nereikia. Tas nestabilumas – tai dolerio silpnumo ženklas ir FED spausdinimo mašinos savininkų agonija. Kaip sužeistas žvėris jie kovos iki galo. Jeigu dar neseniai kalbėjo, kad pasaulyje Vašingtonas platina „valdomą chaosą“, tai dabar jau akivaizdu, kad chaosas tampa nevaldomu. Beje, ir pirmieji du pasauliniai karai pasibaigė ne taip, kaip planavo juos pradėję bankininkai.

Valentin‘as Katasonov‘as, 2015-01-17

Šaltinis: Fondsk

 

 

 

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And the next half, knight to defensive strategy looks like it's shaken, they don't have excessive double again, help, strangely enough, JR in 1 about 1 against Arsenal, and directly put the particular garage was pushed to the ground.

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At the age of 9, garage is of his own stephen curry shoes amateur league teams of players, only if the coach needs to outside shot collapse for the opponent's zone will possibly be sent. Recalled the oneself, garage proudly said: "when We was a defense authorities, all start from presently there. "

To go time for curry shoes the original text, when the garage near the basketball in midfield, people tend to overlook one of the most important thing: pool golf ball skills. Sonya, thanks to be able to his mother, then a new 5 feet tall 3, cordial and some stubborn woman again at the same time, she was in senior high school played point guard, looking at the volleyball after to the campus of Virginia technical, and meet the car port there's father. "If I dribble towards the coast, I have to settle on to shoot or move, it's my limit. "Dell explained, "people started for Stephen impression is all he is able to beautiful posture hit pictures, but before becoming a striker, he already was an improved control player, people usually ignore it. After his or her dribble shot, is I the most beautiful moments. Thanks to the mother. ".

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Half-court finished,stephen

Half-court finished,stephen curry shoes the garage 12 things and 4 rebounds 6 aids, Owen 17 rebounds, 2 assists 1 provides the upper hand slightly. But as knight defeat within the second half, even his / her one-on-one hit his points. In this series, OuWenBen really should have certain advantages in counterpoint, much like the finals last year, because season of Christmas competitions, with their strong personal fortunes turned.

But today the warriors from the changes, let knights staggered, also let like one-on-one hit Owen curry shoes to find the rhythm. Actually, today quite often was clay - Thompson Adept Owen, although Owen hit a dead facing him, but clay height reach or up to a point, limits the Owen's assault. In only a few times in the face of single singled out inside his Arsenal, although Owen offers good performance, but also it's hard an extra chance for a knight.

Total play, scored 28 points 6 rebounds and 10 assists inside Treasury, 6 of 11 three-point kevin durant shoes photos. 24 points and 3 rebounds, a couple of assists, Owen has scored 17 points in the first half, he scored seven points inside second half. Facing the big four in the mighty, and only Eileen Owen in one-on-one earn garage have chances, but today's garage to try and do better.

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After a brought the first

After a brought the first curry shoes ball, a garage at the particular match: each other organized a perfect diamond front, teammate Steve Blake flew to check out up, left the clippers safeguard darren collison (microblogging) the gap between two steps at the rear of their closely, Danny granger is the only defender in pull. This is the car port superior court intuition and which embodies: his shot selection. He seems to recognize the defensive player in the ideas, can predict his or her next move, then strike in advance. "When other people are generally doing gesture, garage within judgment, and the online game, this is Stephen is the best place, in this respect this league may be an awesome experience. Find field space, know the place that the defense space will come about, it is the key from the art of his pictures. Because no matter just how good your shots, a lot more exquisite technology, no place is useless. "ESPN's Brian thorpe, once wrote within his article.

Garage cautiously stephen curry shoes observing the defense, he have reason to be therefore cautious. Before this, the warriors have overlooked 12 goals in 13 shots in the past, is now 33 for you to 37 behind the clippers, disturbed from the right leg muscle pressure of garage after only one of 4. For storage area himself, this ball is essential: before a season, he hit a record in NBA history having 272 grains of a few points, if again founded three points today, his three points shock as to hit number will go beyond 200 mark. So that library can be the sixth in a row has at the very least two season hit 200 grains of three players, at the same occasion, still can have about three points to continuous hit game streak keep 54 games - it'll be the warriors team history record.

"I like everything kevin durant shoes in connection with the shooting, " garage once said in an interview, "but with the most especially in perfect give posture. When your body's in good rhythm, from standing in the feet on the floor, his hands to complete a go, all series of joint actions will likely be calm and smooth, similar to waves. It's a fantastic feeling. ".

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Finals very last season,

Finals very last season, Arsenal's performance kd shoes isn't very ideal, although the data well, but the efficiency is not high, and his back pass error, defensive irvine was built key 3 points have grown to be a "black spots" instant, apparently, in hope that within this to prove himself.

Simply no, after the opening, the three points within the database and didn't struck two shots, on your contrary, the knight about three points would hit many over there. Garage or concentrate on defense, he para such as lebron, Irwin, JR., has become people already, also have got successful prevention.

In moving, did well in this Treasury, the ball to a teammate are fed properly, but Mr Chu in many opportunity attack. 04 seconds left inside first quarter, garage dribble towards the frontcourt, rhythm, but he is confident the take several steps away from the three-point line and it is necessary to make curry shoes techniques, the ball! This can also be the warriors in the very first 3-pointer today. Soon, the Treasury and using second chances around the right side of the camp again in a 3 things!

It is worth mentioning which the opening, the garage suitable arm was wearing a new black gear, it is additionally because his right elbow from the game before the old injury carries a relapse, however, with the game, he has to pull off protective devices. Gear, it appears, has affected the deal with, before he took off once i feel much better.

In against lebron James, the defense has been doing very well in the Arsenal, but after he was lebron was a little daughter knocked out, the referee offers stephen curry shoes blown the garage blocking foul, garage on the ground is various, make action to the referee said lebron shoulder.

In breakthrough, garage can be a difficult moves, all sorts of people all the method up his defense, as well as lebron, but Treasury first in many dazzling dribble move Thompson, immediately after air and rival crash cases, the hard in order to score.

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Half-court complete,stephen

Half-court complete,stephen curry shoes the garage 12 items and 4 rebounds 6 assists, Owen 17 rebounds, 2 assists 1 contains the upper hand slightly. But as knight defeat in the second half, even the one-on-one hit his items. In this series, OuWenBen really should have certain advantages in counterpoint, such as the finals last year, for the reason that season of Christmas battles, with their strong individual fortunes turned.

But today the warriors from the changes, let knights staggered, also let like one-on-one hit Owen curry shoes to get the rhythm. Actually, today usually was clay - Thompson Adept Owen, although Owen hit a dead looking at him, but clay height reach or up to a point, limits the Owen's attack. In only a few times in the face of single singled out inside his Arsenal, although Owen possesses good performance, but also it's hard to return for a knight.

Entire play, scored 28 points 6 rebounds and 10 assists inside the Treasury, 6 of 11 three-point kd shoes photographs. 24 points and 3 rebounds, a couple of assists, Owen has scored 17 points inside first half, he scored seven points inside second half. Facing the big four in the mighty, and only Eileen Owen in one-on-one get garage have chances, but today's garage to perform better.

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Knight's approach clearly,

Knight's approach clearly, today is to be able to cling to garage, don't give him any likelihood, and Kevin durant is always private with defense. But garage or under heavy defensive seek out opportunities, such as encounter stephen curry shoes low, he mobilized, utilize the other fear his border ability garage easily obtained two points.

The last 80 seconds within the first half, durant overlooked shots from outside, the basket three players are usually knights, including Thompson, lebron, therefore, the Treasury rushed into the basket from the extended position, unexpectedly the offensive rebounds inside the knight encirclement! Then this individual points ball durant, that finished scores!

And the second half, knight to defensive strategy looks like it's shaken, they don't have too much double again, help, perhaps surprisingly, JR in 1 upon 1 against Arsenal, and directly put the particular garage was pushed towards ground.

Sure enough, the actual knight defensive shaken curry shoes immediately after scoring started rising throughout his Arsenal, outside his or her 3-pointer by continuous, during those times he was given the opportunity to just like Kevin durant got chance from the first half. After three points inside database is still hit, he this section one bomb within the 14 points.

Today is actually June 1, the time kevin durant shoes would be the international children's day, it seems in the "primary school" is among the holiday today.

Small garage finish I rested the vast majority of holiday to battle, he could be still the contribution to the brilliant stroke, but furthermore pass a 3-pointer by simply Kevin durant. The final 3 minutes, garage off ahead of schedule, because the video game had no suspense.

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