Doleris ir karas

       JAV dolerį jau daug kartų laidojo, bet jis vis dar gyvas. Breton Vudso pinigų sistemos žlugimo išvakarėse dolerio dalis pasaulio valiutų atsargose artėjo prie 80% (1970 m. – 77,2%; 1972 m. – 78,6%). Po to, perėjus prie Jamaikos pinigų sistemos, ji pamažu mažėjo ir 1995 metais pasiekė žemiausią lygį - 59,0%. Esant finansinės globalizacijos bangai doleris vėl sustiprėjo (1999-2001 m. jo dalis pasiekė 70-71%), bet po to dolerio lyginamasis svoris tarptautinėse valiutų atsargose vėl sumažėjo – iki žemiau kaip 61% lygio 2014 metais. Nepaisant to, tai yra daugiau nei 1995metų rodiklis.

       Pagal Tarptautinių atsiskaitymų banko duomenis, 2010 metų balandyje dolerio dalis operacijose tarptautinėje valiutų rinkoje buvo 84,9%, tai 2013 metų balandyje ji išaugo iki 87. Palyginimui: per tą patį laikotarpį euro dalis krito nuo 39,1 iki 33,4%. Į akis krenta disproporcija tarp dolerio padėties pasaulio finansuose ir JAV padėties pasaulio ekonomikoje. Šiandien JAV dalis pasaulio BVP yra maždaug 20%. Pagal BVP dydį Kinija jau pralenkė JAV (skaičiuojant pagal valiutų perkamosios galios paritetą), bet juanio dalis pasaulio valiutų rinkos operacijose 2013 metų balandyje buvo tik 2,2%. Tikslių duomenų apie juanio dalį pasaulio valiutų atsargose nėra, bet ekspertų vertinimai rodo, kad ji šiek tiek didesnė už 1%.

       Šios disproporcijos labai primena XIX a. pabaigos – ХХa. pradžios pasaulinę ekonomikos  panoramą. Tais laikais įvyko pasaulio ekonomikos lyderių persigrupavimas. Pagal pramonės ir žemės ūkio produkcijos dydį į pirmą vietą išėjo Jungtinės Valstijos. Pagal kai kurias pozicijas į antrą vietą pradėjo išeiti Vokietija. O Didžioji Britanija, kuri XIX a. didžiąją dalį turėjo „pasaulio dirbtuvės“ statusą, pradėjo ristis į trečią vietą pasaulyje. Tuo pačiu Didžiosios Britanijos svaras sterlingų, kaip ir anksčiau, liko pasauline valiuta, kuri vykdė rezervinės priemonės ir tarptautinių atsiskaitymų priemonės funkcijas. Štai pasaulio atsargų pagal valiutų rūšis struktūra Pirmojo pasaulinio karo išvakarėse, 1913 metais (%): svaras sterlingų - – 47; Prancūzijos frankas – 30; Vokietijos markė – 16; JAV doleris – 2; kitos valiutos – 5 (Officer, Lawrence H. „Between the Dollar-Sterling Gold Points: Exchange Rates, Parity, and Market Behavior“. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1996). Kaip matome, JAV dolerio dalis buvo labai nereikšminga. Disproporcija tarp JAV ekonominio išsivystymo ir dolerio pozicijų pasaulio finansų sistemoje buvo maždaug tokia pati, kaip šiandien disproporcija yra tarp Kinijos ekonominio išsivystymo ir juanio padėties.

       Pasaulio bankininkams, kurie pastatė ant dolerio, prieš šimtą metų buvo reikalingas pasaulinis karas, kad doleris galėtų užimti vietą po saule. 1913 metais JAV Kongresas, spaudžiamas „pinigų maišų“, balsavo už Federalinės rezervų sistemos sukūrimą, kuri 1914 metais pradėjo leisti dolerį, kaip JAV bendrą valiutą, o po pusmečio prasidėjo pasaulinis karas. Karas pakeitė pagrindinių didžiųjų valstybių jėgų ir jų valiutų santykį. 1928 metais pasaulinių valiutų atsargų pasiskirstymas atrodė taip (%): svaras sterlingų – 77; JAV doleris – 21; Prancūzijos frankas – 2. (Officer, Lawrence H.). Tai yra svaras sterlingų, nepaisant smarkaus Didžiosios Britanijos ekonomikos susilpnėjimo, ne tik nesusilpnino savo padėties, bet netgi papildomai sustiprėjo. JAV doleris gerokai padidino savo lyginamąjį svorį lyginant su 1913 metais ir užtikrintai užėmė antrą vietą. Kitos valiutos – konkurentės išėjo iš distancijos. Siekiant galutinai nugalėti Didžiosios Britanijos svarą sterlingų, FED šeimininkams teko parengti ir organizuoti dar vieną pasaulinį karą, po kurio doleris buvo prilygintas auksui ir iš esmės tapo vienintele pasauline valiuta.   

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       Šiuo metu formaliai dolerio padėtis pasaulyje yra nebloga, bet Federalinės rezervų sistemos pagrindinių akcininkų negali netrikdyti tai, kad disproporcija tarp JAV BVP ir dolerio padėties didėja. Doleris tampa vis labiau nestabiliu. Norint keletas didelių valstybių gali koordinuoti savo pastangas, suvienyti išteklius, pradėti dolerio atsargų nusimetimą ir sužlugdyti dolerį. Bet FED šeimininkų jėga tame, kad jie visada mokėjo aktyviai veikti. Štai ir dabar yra daug požymių, kad jie imasi praktinių žingsnių dolerio apsaugai ir pirmiausia didelio karo parengimui. Tokio karo sukėlimui „pinigų savininkai“ (FED spausdinimo mašinos savininkai) turi keletą priežasčių.

       1.Spausdinimo mašinos savininkams reikia palaikyti savo produkcijos paklausą ir kainą. Savanoriškas „bėgimas paskui dolerį“ Europoje pasibaigė daugiau kaip prieš pusę amžiaus. Racionalių ekonomikos paskatų įsigyti dolerius pasaulyje nesimato. Juk dolerių masė, išeinanti iš FED spausdinimo mašinos, šiandien daug kartų viršija viską, kas sukuriama JAV ekonomikoje. O JAV aukso atsargos, nors ir didžiausios pasaulyje (daugiau kaip 8000 t), padengia tik „žaliųjų“ visos masės procento dalis. Lieka viena: visam pasauliui primesti „prekę“, kurią gamina Federalinis rezervas, jėga. Šiandien vienintelis dolerio užtikrinimas yra JAV Ginkluotosios pajėgos, kurių pagrindinė funkcija yra garantuoti paklausos „žaliajam popieriui“ palaikymą. Jungtinėse Valstijose klasikinis karinis pramoninis kompleksas (KPK) jau seniai transformavosi į karinį bankinį kompleksą (KBK).

       Po Breton Vudso pinigų sistemos žlugimo į jos vietą atėjo Jamaikos pinigų sistema, kuri  yra naftos dolerio sistema, nes 8 –ame dešimtmetyje įvyko dolerio pririšimas prie juodojo aukso (naftą pradėjo pardavinėti tik už dolerius). Nafta iki šiol išlieka dolerio sistemos pagrindu. Nors šiandien Amerika jau beveik nepriklauso nuo naftos importo, bet ji kontroliuoja naftą išgaunančias valstybes. Kontrolės tikslas yra neleisti juodojo aukso prekyboje pereiti prie kitų, nei doleris, valiutų. Dėl to esant reikalui Vašingtonas imasi karinių veiksmų naftos išgavimo regionuose. Pirmiausia, Artimuosiuose ir Viduriniuose Rytuose. Muamaras Kadafis buvo nuverstas ir žiauriai nužudytas dėl to, kad iš pradžių atsiskaitymuose už naftą nuo dolerio perėjo prie euro, o po to planavo pereiti prie auksinio dinaro.

       2. Kai JAV doleris pradeda kristi, Amerika įtraukia visus svertus silpnėjančio dolerio sustiprinimui (politinių situacijų įvairiose pasaulio dalyse destabilizavimo operacijos; pilietiniai ir regioniniai karai). Šiuo požiūriu Amerika, nepaisant jos didėjančios ekonomikos degradacijos, tampa dirbtine „stabilumo sala“. Kapitalai iš įvairių pasaulio kampelių pradeda eiti į Ameriką, padidindami „žaliojo popieriaus“ kursą. Kam Amerikai reikalingas aukštas dolerio kursas? Atsakyti yra nesunku.

       Pirmiausia, JAV gauna pigaus importo galimybę, kuris užtikrina vidaus vartojimą. Spausdinimo mašina kartu su pervertintu JAV piniginio vieneto kursu yra ideali sąlyga valstybės -parazito egzistavimui. 

       Antra, padedant brangiam doleriui, Amerika (tiksliau FED savininkai) gauna galimybę  visame pasaulyje pigiai supirkti gamtos išteklius, įmones, nekilnojamą turtą, kitą turtą. Susiklosčiusi dolerio sistema FED savininkams bus reikalinga iki tol, kol visas pasaulis nepereis į jų kontrolę.

       3.„Pinigų savininkams“ (FED pagrindiniams savininkams) gali būti reikalinga ne tik regioninė, bet ir pasaulinė destabilizacija, tai yra pasaulinis karas. Toks destabilizavimas gali sunaikinti arba mažiausiai susilpninti visas potencialias Amerikos konkurentes. Vašingtonui (tiksliau Federaliniam rezervui) reikalingas tik monocentrinis pasaulio modelis. Be didelio karo šio modelio nepastatysi. Pasaulinis karas leis išspręsti daugelį Amerikos ekonomikos problemų, kurios artimiausiu metu gresia tapti kritinėmis.  

       Pavyzdžiui, 2013 metų pabaigoje JAV valstybės skola jau buvo 104,5%. O štai Europoje, kuri jau keletą metų išgyvena skolų krizę, šis rodiklis yra mažesnis. 2013 metų pabaigoje euro zonos šalių rodiklis buvo lygus 92,6%. Ne mažiau aktuali Vašingtonui yra užsienio skolos problema. 2014 metų rugpjūtyje šios skolos santykinis lygis pasiekė 107% BVP. Skolų tvarkymui tenka išleisti vis didesnę pajamų dalį. Šiandien JAV biudžeto išlaidose valstybės skolos procentai nėra dideli (apie 7%), bet juk ir palūkanų normos JAV ekonomikoje dėl kiekybinio palengvinimo (QE) programos buvo grynai simbolinės. QE programa nutraukiama, išlaidos valstybės ir visų kitų skolų tvarkymui smarkiai išauga. Esant tokiai situacijai JAV valdantieji sluoksniai tikriausiai prisimena šimto metų senumo istoriją. Pirmojo pasaulinio karo išvakarėse Amerika užėmė jau pirmą vietą pagal pramonės gamybą, bet tuo pačiu turėjo didžiulę užsienio skolą (pirmiausia, Didžiajai Britanijai). Pirmasis pasaulinis karas kardinaliai pakeitė situaciją. JAV tapo stambiausia tarptautine kreditore. Tuo pačiu metu jos pagrindinės sąjungininkės kare – Didžioji Britanija ir Prancūzija – tapo stambiausiomis Amerikos skolininkėmis. Pagal Antrojo karo rezultatus Amerika sukaupė 70%pasaulio aukso atsargų (be Sovietų Sąjungos). Toks JAV sustiprėjimas ir leido legalizuoti dolerio, kaip pasaulinės valiutos, padėtį (tarptautinės konferencijos Breton Vudse 1944 metais sprendimai).

       Tuo atveju, jeigu JAV sugebės tapti trečiojo pasaulinio karo vienintele beneficiare (naudos gavėja), senų skolų problema išnyks savaime. Tada Vašingtonas galės vienašališkai iš savo balanso nurašyti kitų valstybių skolas,  savo nuožiūra nustatydama, kurios valstybės yra „kaltos“ dėl karo. „Kaltų“ valstybių piniginiai reikalavimai Amerikai anuliuojami pagal apibrėžimą, būtent taip elgėsi Antantės šalys Vokietijos atžvilgiu 1919 metų Paryžiaus taikos konferencijoje. Be to, Amerika, kaip laimėtoja, galės „kaltoms“ valstybėms paskirti reparacijas ir kontribucijas. Panašiai, kaip tai padarė Antantės šalys toje pačioje konferencijoje Paryžiuje 1919 metais.

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       Trečiasis pasaulinis karas iš esmės bus kitoks nei pasauliui iki šiol buvo žinoma. Jis prasidės be oficialaus paskelbimo. Ir nors mes iki galo to dar nesuvokiame, bet karas greičiausiai jau prasidėjo. Panaudojant samdinius (privačias karines kompanijas), pasiremiant penkta kolona atskirų valstybių viduje, aktyviai panaudojant „maidano” technologijas, įtraukiant Vašingtono kontroliuojamą žiniasklaidą, paskelbiant ekonomines sankcijas ir t.t. Šis nepaskelbtas karas vykdomas su kovos prieš terorizmą, „radikalų islamą“, „Rusijos agresiją“, žmogaus teisių pažeidimą ir t.t., ir pan. vėliava.    

       Tokio nepaskelbto pasaulinio karo metu „pinigų savininkai“ (FED akcininkai) spręs susikaupusias dolerio problemas. Pavyzdžiui, su kovos prieš terorizmą ir „nešvarius pinigus“ vėliava JAV gali įvykdyti „pinigų reformą“. Jos esmė labai paprasta. FED išleidžia naujus dolerius ir organizuoja jų mainus į seną „žaliąją masę“. Be to, senų dolerių pateikėjai turi pateikti patikimus jų kilmės teisėtumo įrodymus. Kontrolės filtrai gali būti tokie griežti, kad senų dolerių liūto dalis nepraeis „egzamino“ ir pavirs į šiukšles. Taip bus pašalinta „dolerio lubų“, kurios slegia dėdę Semą, problema. Tačiau JAV ir tas variantas yra neidealus – viso pasaulio vienkartinis apvogimas kitas valstybes gali pastūmėti tarptautiniuose atsiskaitymuose naudoti savo nacionalines valiutas, sukurti regionines valiutas, visiškai atsisakyti dolerio.

       Todėl trečiajame nepaskelbtame pasauliniame kare gali būti panaudoti ir kiti ekonominiai metodai. Pavyzdžiui, nepaisant to, kad „žalioji masė“ užpildė visą pasaulį, dolerio perkamoji galia prekių rinkose yra pakankamai didelė. Jokios hiperinfliacijos grėsmės nesimato. Viskas labai paprasta. Spausdinimo mašinos visos produkcijos liūto dalis eina į finansų rinkas. Tačiau yra 101 būdas sumažinti arba net visiškai likviduoti tas pačias finansų rinkas. Tada visa „žalioji masė“ plūstelės į prekių rinkas. Kils hiperinfliacija, prilyginama tai, kurią patyrė Veimaro respublika ХХ amžiaus 3 –ojo dešimtmečio pradžioje. Geriausiu atveju iš dabartinio dolerio perkamosios galios liks 1%.Katastrofa?  Kaip pažiūrėsi. Juk tokiu atveju trilijonų dolerių turėtojų visame pasaulyje rankose liks vien tik šiukšlės. Tik Kinijos oficialiosios tarptautinės atsargos jau viršijo 4trilijonus dolerių, be to, „žaliajam popieriui“ tenka mažiausiai 1/3. Po to Amerika vykdo pinigų reformą ir įveda naują visavertį dolerį. Maždaug prieš penkerius metus buvo aktyviai svarstoma tokios „pinigų reformos“ galimo vykdymo problema, tik vietoje naujo dolerio tada pranašavo piniginį vienetą, kurio pavadinimas „amero“. Buvo manoma, kad tai bus trijų valstybių –JAV, Kanados ir Meksikos bendra valiuta. Dolerio pakeitimo į „amero“ variantas dar gali būti reanimuotas, bet iš Vašingtono pareikalaus labai rimto jėgos užtikrinimo. 

        Bet kuriuo atveju tikėtis, kad susilpnės nestabilumas pasaulyje, nereikia. Tas nestabilumas – tai dolerio silpnumo ženklas ir FED spausdinimo mašinos savininkų agonija. Kaip sužeistas žvėris jie kovos iki galo. Jeigu dar neseniai kalbėjo, kad pasaulyje Vašingtonas platina „valdomą chaosą“, tai dabar jau akivaizdu, kad chaosas tampa nevaldomu. Beje, ir pirmieji du pasauliniai karai pasibaigė ne taip, kaip planavo juos pradėję bankininkai.

Valentin‘as Katasonov‘as, 2015-01-17

Šaltinis: Fondsk

 

 

 

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Garage into seven three-pointers inside game, this also let their playoff three-pointers hit number nearly 261, match the Robert horry, ninth three points in playoff heritage list. Distance comes eighth Chauncey billups, he additionally only six three points.

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So many record the first world war, there is no doubt how the game can be said to be the garage in this series played the best game. The first 3 games, garage is averaging twenty-seven. 3 points and four. 7 rebounds, 6 allows, shooting 40. 3% and also 35. 3% from 3, compared with the normal season shooting stage, a clear degree of decline, though the game, garage completely ridiculous. The blazers in many players to hound him, but no one may disturb his rhythm. Garage, as it were, in the game again to determine "day day" feeling.

11 three-point collection out hand, hit [url=http://www.kdshoes.us.com]kevin durant shoes[/url] eight goals, including vast distances of three points. Wearing warriors baseball hat sitting from the stands to watch the actual old garage, it also appears to own son's playing god are most often some incredible performance. The lens for the old garage, he cannot help but shook the head.

Of course, it doesn't matter what other people think, garage three points with regards to own performance with total confidence. In the 3 rd quarter the warriors with 88-58 big lead this blazers, garage outside the actual three-point line again, the ball away from the one hand, he turned back field, the ball firmly in to the basket, the whole uproar. Can put the three points in this particular state, the other bash can say what?

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At the age of 9, garage is of their own stephen curry shoes amateur league teams of players, only if the coach should outside shot collapse on the opponent's zone will possibly be sent. Recalled the ourselves, garage proudly said: "when My partner and i was a defense professionals, all start from right now there. "

To go returning to curry shoes the original text, if the garage near the golf ball in midfield, people tend to overlook the most important thing: pool ball skills. Sonya, thanks to help his mother, then a new 5 feet tall 3, cordial and some stubborn woman again while doing so, she was in high school graduation played point guard, embracing the volleyball after in to the campus of Virginia technological, and meet the garage there's father. "If I dribble towards the coast, I have to decide on to shoot or move, it's my limit. "Dell explained, "people started for Stephen impression is all they can beautiful posture hit pictures, but before becoming some sort of striker, he already was a much better control player, people often ignore it. After his / her dribble shot, is I the most wonderful moments. Thanks to his / her mother. ".

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