Ekonominės sankcijos prieš Rusiją ir Vakarų bankų sistemos kortų namelis

       Praėjusių metų pabaigoje žinomas JAV ekonomistas, vienas iš „reiganomikos“ kūrėjų, Polas Kreigas Robertsas, atsakydamas į finansų informacinio portalo „King World News“ klausimus apie Vakarų ekonomines sankcijas prieš Rusiją, pasakė, kad Maskva rankose turi keletą kozirių, kurie ne tik leis jai atremti Vakarų ekonomines sankcijas, bet ir jiems suduoti rimtą atsakomąjį smūgį. Robertso nuomone, vienas iš pagrindinių tokių kozirių yra Rusijos užsienio skola.

        Priminsiu duomenis apie Rusijos skolos dydį (mlrd. dolerių):

       01.01.2013 – 636,42

       01.01.2014 – 728,86

       01.07.2014 – 732,78

       01.01.2015 – 598,68.

       Pagal pasaulio standartus skolos dydis yra vidutiniškas. Maždaug 35% BVP. Palyginimui: ES valstybėse šis rodiklis viršijo 100%, o JAV jau pasiekė 100%. Kai kuriose „auksinio milijardo“ valstybėse jis daug didesnis. Didžiojoje Britanijoje ir Šveicarijoje jis perkopė 400%. 

       Didžiausia Rusijos skolos dalis yra Rusijos įsipareigojimai (valstybės, bankų ir ekonomikos nefinansinio sektoriaus) Vakarams. Pagrindiniai Rusijos užsienio skolos turėtojai yra JAV ir Vakarų Europos bankai. Nepaisant to, kad nuo 2014 metų kovo mėnesio Rusijai buvo taikomos ekonominės sankcijos, valstybė, bankai ir šalies kompanijos toliau nepriekaištingai vykdė savo įsipareigojimus, grąžindami pagrindinę skolą ir mokėdami palūkanas. Polo Kreigo Robertso nuomone, esant ekonominio karo sąlygoms, Rusija turi visišką teisinį ir politinį pagrindą nutraukti savo užsienio skolos  įsipareigojimų vykdymą.

       Teisinis pagrindas yra tai, kad teisiniu požiūriu ekonominės sankcijos – tai force majeure, kurios numatomos įvairiomis sutartimis, įskaitant paskolų. Force majeure  sutarties pusei, kuri tampa nenugalimos jėgos veikimo objektu, suteikia teisę atidėti savo įsipareigojimų vykdymą tos jėgos veikimo laikotarpiu. Pastebėsiu, neatsisakyti nuo vykdymo, bet atidėti vykdymą.

        Politinis pagrindas yra pats ekonominio karo prieš Rusiją vykdymo faktas. Paskutinis pagal laiką tokio karo reiškinys, į kurį dėmesį atkreipė JAV ekspertas, buvo Rusijos rublio  smarkus kritimas. Polas Kreigas Robertsas rublio kritimą kvalifikuoja ne kaip lemtingą aplinkybių sutapimą, bet kaip suplanuotą ekonominio karo akciją. Rublio kurso kritimas sukėlė abejones, ar Rusijos skolininkai savo įsipareigojimus galės įvykdyti užsienio kreditoriams. Robertsas įsitikinęs, kad vien tik rublio kritimas gali ir turi būti vertinamas, kaip nenugalimos jėgos veikimas, kuri Rusijos skolininkams suteikia pagrindą sustabdyti mokėjimus iki tol, kol neįvyks rublio kurso atsistatymas.  

       „Rusijai, - sako Robertsas, - net defolto skelbti nereikės, pakaks tik pasakyti: „Mes šiais metais neketiname mokėti. Tai padarysime vėliau, kai rublis stabilizuosis““. O kaip tai paveiks Rusijos skolos turėtojus Vakaruose? „Reiganomikos“ tėvas mano, kad poveikis bus labai  skaudus. Ypač kai kuriems Europos bankams. „Į ES bankų sistemą įeinantys bankai siaubingai netinkamai kapitalizuoti, kai kuriems iš jų Rusijos kreditai apima visą pagrindinį kapitalą, - pastebėjo Robertsas.- Jūs galite įsivaizduoti, kokį poveikį toks sprendimas turės Vakarams? Atkreipkite dėmesį, kaip viskas tarpusavyje yra susiję – „Lehman Brothers“ bankrotas Europai smogė ne mažiau nei JAV“.

       „Vakarų valstybėms,- tęsia JAV ekonomistas, - nereikia per anksti džiaugtis kai kuriais sunkumais, kuriuos dabar patiria Rusija. Šiandien aš matau daug savimi patenkintų žmonių, kurie nevaldomai laimingi dėl to, kad pagaliau „Rusija sutrypta į žemę“, „su Rusija pabaigta“, „Rusija palaužta ir greitai taps Amerikos vasalu“ ir pan. Klausantis visų šių nesąmonių, man kilo klausimas: kaip žmonės gali būti tokie neprotingi? Deja, jie tiek kvaili, kiek ir tie, kurie sėdi Vašingtone. O juk Rusija gali išleisti „juodąsias gulbes“ kurios sugriaus Vakarų kortų namelį“, - pabaigia Robertsas.

       Aš galiu sutikti su tuo, kad Vakarų bankų sistema iš tikrųjų primena kortų namelį.

       Paimkime, kad ir Tarptautinių atsiskaitymų banko apžvalgą, kurioje vertinamos Vakarų bankų rizikos dėl jų veiklos Rusijoje (apžvalga buvo paskelbta 2014 metų paskutinėmis dienomis). Sprendžiant pagal viską, pagrindinis apžvalgos tikslas yra įvertinti Vakarų bankų nuostolius tuo atveju, jeigu Rusija įves moratoriumą užsienio skolų mokėjimams.

                                                                                                                                                    1 lentelė

          Užsienio bankų Rusijoje rizikų vertės rodikliai (2014 m. liepos mėn., mlrd. dol.)

Valstybė

Visų rizikų dydis

Pagrindinės rizikos (visiems kreditams

Kitos rizikos

JAV

109,6

26,1

85,3

Prancūzija

59,1

47,8

11,3

Didžioji Britanija

45,2

14,3

30,9

Italija

34,0

18,4

6,3

Vokietija

20,8

17,7

3,1

Japonija

20,3

18,4

1,9

Olandija

15,7

15,7

-

Švedija

9,1

9,1

-

Ispanija

1,4

1,2

0,2

Kitos valstybės

48,0

31,4

16,6

Iš viso

363,2

207,6

155,6

        Užsienio bankų Rusijoje pagrindinė visų rizikų dalis tenka JAV bankams - 30,0 %. Kitų pagrindinių valstybių bankų dalys yra šios (%): Prancūzija – 16,2; Didžioji Britanija – 12,4; Italija – 9,4; Vokietija – 5,7. Devynioms valstybėms, kurios nurodytos lentelėje, tenka 86,8% visų rizikų, be to, didžioji jų dalis tenka nuostoliams dėl rizikų, kurios susijusios su kreditų, suteiktų Rusijos bankams, negrąžinimu. Šių rizikų dalis yra  57,2%. Likusieji 42,8% tenka „potencialių rizikų“ („neapibrėžtieji įsipareigojimai“) kategorijai. Į juos įeina galimi užsienio bankų nuostoliai, kylantys iš jų įsipareigojimų dėl banko garantijų ir išvestinių finansinių priemonių. 

       Vertinant tik nuostolius dėl Rusijos mokėjimų už kreditus nutraukimo, tai pagrindinės išlaidos gula ant šių valstybių (nuostolių dydžio mažėjimo tvarka): Prancūzija, JAV, Italija, Japonija, Vokietija, Olandija, Didžioji Britanija, Švedija. Polas Kreigas Robetsas teisingai atkreipia dėmesį į tai, kad Europos bankams smūgis dėl Rusijos įvesto moratoriumo gali būti ypač jautrus. Žiniasklaidoje figūruoja kai kurių labiausiai pažeidžiamų Europos bankų pavadinimai. Pavyzdžiui, Italijos „UniCredit“, Prancūzijos „Societe Generale“. Minimi ir Austrijos bankai. Visų pirma,Raiffeisen Bank International“,kurio Rusijos kreditų portfelis šių metų pradžioje buvo 10,8 mlrd. eurų.

       Daugelio Europos valstybių bankams grėsmė kyla ne tik iš Rusijos, bet ir iš tokių valstybių, kaip Graikija, Italija, Ispanija, Portugalija, Airija. Šių valstybių iždai išleido skolos vertybinių popierių už daug dešimčių milijardų eurų. Didžioji jų dalis susikaupė pagrindinių Europos bankų balansuose. Vertybiniai popieriai akyse virsta į šiukšles, griaudami bankų gigantų stabilumą. Pagal Tarptautinių atsiskaitymų banko skaičiavimus, Vokietijos bankų potencialiai probleminių aktyvų dydis Graikijoje, Airijoje ir Portugalijoje viršija 220 mlrd. eurų, o Prancūzijos – 150 mlrd. eurų.

       Praėjusių metų rudenį Europos centrinis bankas (ECB) paskelbė 130Europos stambiausių bankų streso testo rezultatus (išgyvenimo krizės sąlygomis vertinimas). Buvo atskleisti „kai kurie trūkumai“, užfiksuotas „sąlyginai nedidelis“ kapitalo trūkumas 25  pagrindiniuose bankuose. O apskritai ECB ataskaita jokio ažiotažo Europoje ir pasaulyje nesukėlė. ECB ir kitos Europos Sąjungos organizacijos daro viską, ką gali, kad paslėptų tikrą reikalų padėtį ES valstybių bankininkystės sektoriuje.  

       Ekonomistai iš Šveicarijos Rizikų valdymo centro Lozanoje rizikas vertina daug griežčiau. 500 milijardų dolerių dydžio kapitalo trūkumą jie nustatė vien tik 37 bankuose, kai tuo tarpu ECB pasirinkimu iš 130 bankų deficitas sudaro maždaug 10 milijardų. Yra ir kiti vertinimai – maždaug tokie pat, kaip ir ekonomistų iš Lozanos. „AllianceBernstein Ltd.“ analizėje sakoma, kad lėšų trūkumas, kuris kelia grėsmę daugeliui kredito organizacijų, nuo „JPMorgan Chase & Co.” iki „HSBC Holdings Plc”, gali sudaryti 870 milijardus dolerių.

       Apskritai galima sutikti, kad šiandien ES bankų sistemos stabilumas yra gerokai mažesnis nei JAV bankų sistemos stabilumas. 300stambių bankų tyrimas, kurį praėjusiais metais atliko Tarptautinis valiutos fondas, parodė, kad tik 30 procentų euro zonos bankų turi kapitalą ir struktūrą, kurie ilgą laiką gali užtikrinti tinkamą grąžos normą, kai JAV tokių bankų yra 80 procentų.

       Europos bankų sistema vos kvėpuoja, ji bet kuriuo momentu gali, išsireiškiant Polo Kreigo Robertso žodžiais, susidėlioti, kaip kortų namelis. Tam gali užtekti, pavyzdžiui, kad Rusija įvestų moratoriumą užsienio skolų mokėjimui. O jeigu dar ir Graikija paskelbs defoltą dėl savo suverenių skolų, tai Europos bankų sistemos žlugimas yra neišvengiamas. Ir čia reikia atsižvelgti į tai, kad tarptautinių finansų pasaulyje veikia domino principas. Europos bankų sistemos žlugimo atveju greičiausiai neatsilaikys ir JAV bankų sistema.

       Prisiminkime, kaip vystėsi įvykiai 4-ojo dešimtmečio Didžiosios depresijos metu. 1929 metų rudenį akcijų biržos panika Niujorke po kiek laiko palietė daugelį JAV bankų. 1931metais buvo pastebėtas tam tikras stabilizavimasis, bet po to JAV bankų sistemai buvo suduotas antras, dar galingesnis smūgis. Atėjo jis iš Europos, o ten jis prasidėjo nuo 1931metų gegužės mėnesį vieno vienintelio banko – Austrijos „Creditanstalt“ žlugimo. Šiandien tokiame vaidmenyje gali atsidurti Austrijos „Raiffeisen Bank International“.

       Negalima nesutikti su Polu Kreigu Robertsu, kuris kvailiais pavadino tuos Vašingtone, kurie pradėjo ekonominį karą prieš Rusiją.

Valentin‘as Katasonov‘as, 2015-04-13

Šaltinis: Fondsk

Komentarai

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And the other half, knight to defensive strategy appears to be shaken, they don't have an excessive amount double again, help, strangely enough, JR in 1 about 1 against Arsenal, and directly put the particular garage was pushed for the ground.

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Garage into seven three-pointers in the game, this also let his playoff three-pointers hit number as much as 261, match the Robert horry, 9th three points in playoff background list. Distance comes eighth Chauncey billups, he in addition only six three items.

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11 three-point range out hand, hit [url=http://www.kdshoes.us.com]kd shoes[/url] eight goals, including vast mileage of three points. Wearing warriors baseball hat sitting inside stands to watch the old garage, it also appears to have son's playing god look like some incredible performance. The lens for the old garage, he could not help but shook his or her head.

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Glen Davis clippers, 289 - pound in-front, curry shoes need to speed up their action from the Treasury, since the childhood to lay an excellent foundation for complete to garage in any state, the right arm and shooting are able to keep perfect posture and energy. And in addition to master hand movements, garage has a precise shot needed a different factor: enough deep muscle mass memory. Shooting touch is not a proper adjective, anybody player, able to throw a fantastic shooting there is but one secret to all - year after year, year after year exercise, until a set regarding complex dynamic chain implanted into muscle tissue. Garage never resist for example monks meditate boring train, it also helped while he graduated from high school graduation, eventually grow into a different leading little-known Davidson school NCAA elite last eight.

"Game changing, there is no time to kd shoes you see your own shooting actions is correct, " curry claimed, "you can only rely on their daily at it ground building muscle ram, hit and believe that we can. We're so lots of practice in training, so that you can the game, you can rely on instinct to react. But if it is not correctly, the game will feel very strange. ".

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Finals past season, Arsenal's

Finals past season, Arsenal's performance kd shoes is just not very ideal, although your data well, but the efficiency is not high, and his back again pass error, defensive irvine was manufactured key 3 points have grown a "black spots" time, apparently, in hope that within this to prove himself.

Not any, after the opening, the three points inside the database and didn't attack two shots, on the particular contrary, the knight about three points would hit quite a few over there. Garage or focus on defense, he para as well as lebron, Irwin, JR., has been people already, also have successful prevention.

In moving, did well in the Treasury, the ball to your teammate are fed correctly, but Mr Chu in many opportunity attack. 04 seconds left in the first quarter, garage dribble for the frontcourt, rhythm, but he's confident the take a few steps away from the three-point line and it's really necessary to make curry shoes movements, the ball! This is additionally the warriors in the first 3-pointer today. Soon, the Treasury and using second chances within the right side of the beds base again in a 3 factors!

It is worth mentioning that this opening, the garage proper arm was wearing a new black gear, it can also be because his right elbow in the game before the old injury includes a relapse, however, with the experience, he has to lift off protective devices. Gear, this indicates, has affected the take care of, before he took off while i feel much better.

In against lebron James, the defense is doing very well in the Arsenal, but after he was lebron was a new knocked out, the referee provides stephen curry shoes blown the garage obstructing foul, garage on the bottom is various, make action towards referee said lebron shoulder.

In breakthrough, garage can be a difficult moves, all sorts of people all the means up his defense, as well as lebron, but Treasury first in many dazzling dribble move Thompson, right after air and rival crash cases, the hard to be able to score.

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"I got helpful to my

"I got helpful to my evaluation, " curry were recalled,kevin durant shoes "people said I ended up being too short, don't engage in college basketball, then for the same reason that Could not play in the NBA. People do not think I can play guard, then said I am not a pure point guard, until October of a year ago, I also found which the general manager of funny to me as the league 3 rd good shooting guard. I've not yet fully participate in their full potential, well, i set a higher common to himself, committed to continuously improve for being more outstanding. "

"We've never met a person with curry shoes him so great shooting everywhere, " warriors coach tag Jackson said, "and move, stop and go empty-handed, capture hand, step back, lower-leg, in the face connected with two double forced to......, any thought of firing mode, you can see he's astonishingly. We have never seen anyone can accomplish this level, his Steve Nash (microblogging) played a superior level, the two-time MVP give, shooting is incredible, but it is usually a level. And their other like reggie burns, Chris mullin, such seeing that dell and I played together - Ellis, dell -- Arsenal, they are many fantastic striker, but these people didn't garage so complete, this guy is not any limit. "

Timer and also dance, 6 minutes stephen curry shoes along with 30 seconds, Davis is doing everything we can to nearby the garage, but still delayed step. Garage again to perform a beautiful jumper - it isn't strictly jumper, his toe will be out of the ground, under the condition in the body is still rising, use forefinger and middle finger touch to accomplish the hand. Treasury human body slightly back. This not only makes his moves difficult to block, as well as between ball and floor with an additional 10 degrees Angle. NBA players to time takes 0. 6 seconds typically, the garage from preparing action to dial the actual ball moves, it just takes 0. 4 seconds. Fast to make up to the deficiency of the storage height, the ball well steer clear of the opponent blocking fly toward the basket along the way, the look of garage is obviously along with them. His arm still moves when the posture, and of his teammates has begun to help pose three gestures...

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From brought the first curry

From brought the first curry shoes soccer ball, a garage at your match: each other spelled out a perfect diamond top, teammate Steve Blake flew to visit up, left the clippers protect darren collison (microblogging) the length between two steps powering their closely, Danny granger will be the only defender in tow line. This is the shed superior court intuition and knowing that embodies: his shot assortment. He seems to fully grasp the defensive player on the ideas, can predict his or her next move, then strike early in advance. "When other people are generally doing gesture, garage throughout judgment, and the activity, this is Stephen is the better place, in this respect the actual league may be first rate. Find field space, know the place that the defense space will arise, it is the key on the art of his images. Because no matter precisely how good your shots, much more exquisite technology, no bedroom is useless. "ESPN's Donald thorpe, once wrote with his article.

Garage very carefully stephen curry shoes observing the defense, he in addition have reason to be therefore cautious. Before this, the warriors have missed 12 goals in 13 shots before, is now 33 to help 37 behind the clippers, disturbed because of the right leg muscle stress of garage after only one of 4. For storage himself, this ball is vital: before a season, he hit an increasing in NBA history along with 272 grains of three points, if again founded three points today, his three points this season hit number will meet or exceed 200 mark. So that library will become the sixth in a row has a minimum of two season hit 2 hundred grains of three people, at the same time period, still can have about three points to continuous hit game streak continue to 54 games - it will be the warriors team historical past record.

"I like everything kevin durant shoes related to the shooting, " garage once said in the interview, "but with the greatest especially in perfect give posture. When your body's in good rhythm, from standing in the feet on the ground, his hands to complete an attempt, all series of joint actions are going to be calm and smooth, similar to waves. It's a amazing feeling. ".

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Knight's technique clearly,

Knight's technique clearly, today is to be able to cling to garage, do not give him any possibility, and Kevin durant is always private with defense. But garage or under heavy defensive seek out opportunities, such as confront stephen curry shoes low, he mobilized, utilize the other fear his circumference ability garage easily have scored two points.

The last 80 seconds inside first half, durant have missed shots from outside, your basket three players are knights, including Thompson, lebron, therefore, the Treasury rushed into your basket from the long position, unexpectedly the offensive rebounds in the knight encirclement! Then they points ball durant, exactly who finished scores!

And the second half, knight to defensive strategy seems to be shaken, they don't have an excessive amount of double again, help, oddly enough, JR in 1 about 1 against Arsenal, and directly put the garage was pushed towards the ground.

Sure enough, this knight defensive shaken curry shoes immediately after scoring started rising inside his Arsenal, outside his 3-pointer by continuous, in those days he was given an opportunity to just like Kevin durant got chance inside first half. After three points from the database is still strike, he this section one bomb under the 14 points.

Today is June 1, the time kd shoes is the international children's day, it seems in the "primary school" is amongst the holiday today.

Small garage finish I rested almost all of the holiday to battle, he could be still the contribution towards brilliant stroke, but in addition pass a 3-pointer by simply Kevin durant. The past 3 minutes, garage off in front of schedule, because the game had no suspense.

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A couple steals in his

A couple steals in his Collection, stephen curry shoes in the first fraction, and the two steals to garage an overall total of 106 times in the playoffs career steals, which in turn transcends the rick Craig, became the steals inside the history of the warriors team inside the playoffs.

Garage into seven three-pointers inside game, this also let his / her playoff three-pointers hit number as much as 261, match the Robert horry, 9th three points in playoff heritage list. Distance comes 9th Chauncey billups, he likewise only six three items.

37 points in merely three games, came curry shoes someone's, and this is his this season, including playoffs) 9th score 35 + video game with three alone, greater than 7 times of Russell westbrook, the surface of the league.

So many record the 1st world war, there is no doubt how the game can be said to be the garage in this series played the most beneficial game. The first three games, garage is averaging 28. 3 points and some. 7 rebounds, 6 assists, shooting 40. 3% along with 35. 3% from 3, compared with the normal season shooting stage, a certain degree of decline, even so the game, garage completely outrageous. The blazers in a number of players to hound your ex, but no one could disturb his rhythm. Garage, as it were, in the game again to uncover "day day" feeling.

11 three-point brand out hand, hit kevin durant shoes seven goals, including vast miles of three points. Wearing warriors baseball hat sitting from the stands to watch your old garage, it also appears to obtain son's playing god seem to be some incredible performance. The lens on the old garage, he can't help but shook their head.

Of course, regardless of other people think, garage three points because of their own performance with total confidence. In the third quarter the warriors together with 88-58 big lead your blazers, garage outside your three-point line again, the ball far from the one hand, this individual turned back field, the ball firmly in the basket, the whole pandemonium. Can put the three points in this particular state, the other celebration can say what?

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