Ekonominės sankcijos prieš Rusiją ir Vakarų bankų sistemos kortų namelis

       Praėjusių metų pabaigoje žinomas JAV ekonomistas, vienas iš „reiganomikos“ kūrėjų, Polas Kreigas Robertsas, atsakydamas į finansų informacinio portalo „King World News“ klausimus apie Vakarų ekonomines sankcijas prieš Rusiją, pasakė, kad Maskva rankose turi keletą kozirių, kurie ne tik leis jai atremti Vakarų ekonomines sankcijas, bet ir jiems suduoti rimtą atsakomąjį smūgį. Robertso nuomone, vienas iš pagrindinių tokių kozirių yra Rusijos užsienio skola.

        Priminsiu duomenis apie Rusijos skolos dydį (mlrd. dolerių):

       01.01.2013 – 636,42

       01.01.2014 – 728,86

       01.07.2014 – 732,78

       01.01.2015 – 598,68.

       Pagal pasaulio standartus skolos dydis yra vidutiniškas. Maždaug 35% BVP. Palyginimui: ES valstybėse šis rodiklis viršijo 100%, o JAV jau pasiekė 100%. Kai kuriose „auksinio milijardo“ valstybėse jis daug didesnis. Didžiojoje Britanijoje ir Šveicarijoje jis perkopė 400%. 

       Didžiausia Rusijos skolos dalis yra Rusijos įsipareigojimai (valstybės, bankų ir ekonomikos nefinansinio sektoriaus) Vakarams. Pagrindiniai Rusijos užsienio skolos turėtojai yra JAV ir Vakarų Europos bankai. Nepaisant to, kad nuo 2014 metų kovo mėnesio Rusijai buvo taikomos ekonominės sankcijos, valstybė, bankai ir šalies kompanijos toliau nepriekaištingai vykdė savo įsipareigojimus, grąžindami pagrindinę skolą ir mokėdami palūkanas. Polo Kreigo Robertso nuomone, esant ekonominio karo sąlygoms, Rusija turi visišką teisinį ir politinį pagrindą nutraukti savo užsienio skolos  įsipareigojimų vykdymą.

       Teisinis pagrindas yra tai, kad teisiniu požiūriu ekonominės sankcijos – tai force majeure, kurios numatomos įvairiomis sutartimis, įskaitant paskolų. Force majeure  sutarties pusei, kuri tampa nenugalimos jėgos veikimo objektu, suteikia teisę atidėti savo įsipareigojimų vykdymą tos jėgos veikimo laikotarpiu. Pastebėsiu, neatsisakyti nuo vykdymo, bet atidėti vykdymą.

        Politinis pagrindas yra pats ekonominio karo prieš Rusiją vykdymo faktas. Paskutinis pagal laiką tokio karo reiškinys, į kurį dėmesį atkreipė JAV ekspertas, buvo Rusijos rublio  smarkus kritimas. Polas Kreigas Robertsas rublio kritimą kvalifikuoja ne kaip lemtingą aplinkybių sutapimą, bet kaip suplanuotą ekonominio karo akciją. Rublio kurso kritimas sukėlė abejones, ar Rusijos skolininkai savo įsipareigojimus galės įvykdyti užsienio kreditoriams. Robertsas įsitikinęs, kad vien tik rublio kritimas gali ir turi būti vertinamas, kaip nenugalimos jėgos veikimas, kuri Rusijos skolininkams suteikia pagrindą sustabdyti mokėjimus iki tol, kol neįvyks rublio kurso atsistatymas.  

       „Rusijai, - sako Robertsas, - net defolto skelbti nereikės, pakaks tik pasakyti: „Mes šiais metais neketiname mokėti. Tai padarysime vėliau, kai rublis stabilizuosis““. O kaip tai paveiks Rusijos skolos turėtojus Vakaruose? „Reiganomikos“ tėvas mano, kad poveikis bus labai  skaudus. Ypač kai kuriems Europos bankams. „Į ES bankų sistemą įeinantys bankai siaubingai netinkamai kapitalizuoti, kai kuriems iš jų Rusijos kreditai apima visą pagrindinį kapitalą, - pastebėjo Robertsas.- Jūs galite įsivaizduoti, kokį poveikį toks sprendimas turės Vakarams? Atkreipkite dėmesį, kaip viskas tarpusavyje yra susiję – „Lehman Brothers“ bankrotas Europai smogė ne mažiau nei JAV“.

       „Vakarų valstybėms,- tęsia JAV ekonomistas, - nereikia per anksti džiaugtis kai kuriais sunkumais, kuriuos dabar patiria Rusija. Šiandien aš matau daug savimi patenkintų žmonių, kurie nevaldomai laimingi dėl to, kad pagaliau „Rusija sutrypta į žemę“, „su Rusija pabaigta“, „Rusija palaužta ir greitai taps Amerikos vasalu“ ir pan. Klausantis visų šių nesąmonių, man kilo klausimas: kaip žmonės gali būti tokie neprotingi? Deja, jie tiek kvaili, kiek ir tie, kurie sėdi Vašingtone. O juk Rusija gali išleisti „juodąsias gulbes“ kurios sugriaus Vakarų kortų namelį“, - pabaigia Robertsas.

       Aš galiu sutikti su tuo, kad Vakarų bankų sistema iš tikrųjų primena kortų namelį.

       Paimkime, kad ir Tarptautinių atsiskaitymų banko apžvalgą, kurioje vertinamos Vakarų bankų rizikos dėl jų veiklos Rusijoje (apžvalga buvo paskelbta 2014 metų paskutinėmis dienomis). Sprendžiant pagal viską, pagrindinis apžvalgos tikslas yra įvertinti Vakarų bankų nuostolius tuo atveju, jeigu Rusija įves moratoriumą užsienio skolų mokėjimams.

                                                                                                                                                    1 lentelė

          Užsienio bankų Rusijoje rizikų vertės rodikliai (2014 m. liepos mėn., mlrd. dol.)

Valstybė

Visų rizikų dydis

Pagrindinės rizikos (visiems kreditams

Kitos rizikos

JAV

109,6

26,1

85,3

Prancūzija

59,1

47,8

11,3

Didžioji Britanija

45,2

14,3

30,9

Italija

34,0

18,4

6,3

Vokietija

20,8

17,7

3,1

Japonija

20,3

18,4

1,9

Olandija

15,7

15,7

-

Švedija

9,1

9,1

-

Ispanija

1,4

1,2

0,2

Kitos valstybės

48,0

31,4

16,6

Iš viso

363,2

207,6

155,6

        Užsienio bankų Rusijoje pagrindinė visų rizikų dalis tenka JAV bankams - 30,0 %. Kitų pagrindinių valstybių bankų dalys yra šios (%): Prancūzija – 16,2; Didžioji Britanija – 12,4; Italija – 9,4; Vokietija – 5,7. Devynioms valstybėms, kurios nurodytos lentelėje, tenka 86,8% visų rizikų, be to, didžioji jų dalis tenka nuostoliams dėl rizikų, kurios susijusios su kreditų, suteiktų Rusijos bankams, negrąžinimu. Šių rizikų dalis yra  57,2%. Likusieji 42,8% tenka „potencialių rizikų“ („neapibrėžtieji įsipareigojimai“) kategorijai. Į juos įeina galimi užsienio bankų nuostoliai, kylantys iš jų įsipareigojimų dėl banko garantijų ir išvestinių finansinių priemonių. 

       Vertinant tik nuostolius dėl Rusijos mokėjimų už kreditus nutraukimo, tai pagrindinės išlaidos gula ant šių valstybių (nuostolių dydžio mažėjimo tvarka): Prancūzija, JAV, Italija, Japonija, Vokietija, Olandija, Didžioji Britanija, Švedija. Polas Kreigas Robetsas teisingai atkreipia dėmesį į tai, kad Europos bankams smūgis dėl Rusijos įvesto moratoriumo gali būti ypač jautrus. Žiniasklaidoje figūruoja kai kurių labiausiai pažeidžiamų Europos bankų pavadinimai. Pavyzdžiui, Italijos „UniCredit“, Prancūzijos „Societe Generale“. Minimi ir Austrijos bankai. Visų pirma,Raiffeisen Bank International“,kurio Rusijos kreditų portfelis šių metų pradžioje buvo 10,8 mlrd. eurų.

       Daugelio Europos valstybių bankams grėsmė kyla ne tik iš Rusijos, bet ir iš tokių valstybių, kaip Graikija, Italija, Ispanija, Portugalija, Airija. Šių valstybių iždai išleido skolos vertybinių popierių už daug dešimčių milijardų eurų. Didžioji jų dalis susikaupė pagrindinių Europos bankų balansuose. Vertybiniai popieriai akyse virsta į šiukšles, griaudami bankų gigantų stabilumą. Pagal Tarptautinių atsiskaitymų banko skaičiavimus, Vokietijos bankų potencialiai probleminių aktyvų dydis Graikijoje, Airijoje ir Portugalijoje viršija 220 mlrd. eurų, o Prancūzijos – 150 mlrd. eurų.

       Praėjusių metų rudenį Europos centrinis bankas (ECB) paskelbė 130Europos stambiausių bankų streso testo rezultatus (išgyvenimo krizės sąlygomis vertinimas). Buvo atskleisti „kai kurie trūkumai“, užfiksuotas „sąlyginai nedidelis“ kapitalo trūkumas 25  pagrindiniuose bankuose. O apskritai ECB ataskaita jokio ažiotažo Europoje ir pasaulyje nesukėlė. ECB ir kitos Europos Sąjungos organizacijos daro viską, ką gali, kad paslėptų tikrą reikalų padėtį ES valstybių bankininkystės sektoriuje.  

       Ekonomistai iš Šveicarijos Rizikų valdymo centro Lozanoje rizikas vertina daug griežčiau. 500 milijardų dolerių dydžio kapitalo trūkumą jie nustatė vien tik 37 bankuose, kai tuo tarpu ECB pasirinkimu iš 130 bankų deficitas sudaro maždaug 10 milijardų. Yra ir kiti vertinimai – maždaug tokie pat, kaip ir ekonomistų iš Lozanos. „AllianceBernstein Ltd.“ analizėje sakoma, kad lėšų trūkumas, kuris kelia grėsmę daugeliui kredito organizacijų, nuo „JPMorgan Chase & Co.” iki „HSBC Holdings Plc”, gali sudaryti 870 milijardus dolerių.

       Apskritai galima sutikti, kad šiandien ES bankų sistemos stabilumas yra gerokai mažesnis nei JAV bankų sistemos stabilumas. 300stambių bankų tyrimas, kurį praėjusiais metais atliko Tarptautinis valiutos fondas, parodė, kad tik 30 procentų euro zonos bankų turi kapitalą ir struktūrą, kurie ilgą laiką gali užtikrinti tinkamą grąžos normą, kai JAV tokių bankų yra 80 procentų.

       Europos bankų sistema vos kvėpuoja, ji bet kuriuo momentu gali, išsireiškiant Polo Kreigo Robertso žodžiais, susidėlioti, kaip kortų namelis. Tam gali užtekti, pavyzdžiui, kad Rusija įvestų moratoriumą užsienio skolų mokėjimui. O jeigu dar ir Graikija paskelbs defoltą dėl savo suverenių skolų, tai Europos bankų sistemos žlugimas yra neišvengiamas. Ir čia reikia atsižvelgti į tai, kad tarptautinių finansų pasaulyje veikia domino principas. Europos bankų sistemos žlugimo atveju greičiausiai neatsilaikys ir JAV bankų sistema.

       Prisiminkime, kaip vystėsi įvykiai 4-ojo dešimtmečio Didžiosios depresijos metu. 1929 metų rudenį akcijų biržos panika Niujorke po kiek laiko palietė daugelį JAV bankų. 1931metais buvo pastebėtas tam tikras stabilizavimasis, bet po to JAV bankų sistemai buvo suduotas antras, dar galingesnis smūgis. Atėjo jis iš Europos, o ten jis prasidėjo nuo 1931metų gegužės mėnesį vieno vienintelio banko – Austrijos „Creditanstalt“ žlugimo. Šiandien tokiame vaidmenyje gali atsidurti Austrijos „Raiffeisen Bank International“.

       Negalima nesutikti su Polu Kreigu Robertsu, kuris kvailiais pavadino tuos Vašingtone, kurie pradėjo ekonominį karą prieš Rusiją.

Valentin‘as Katasonov‘as, 2015-04-13

Šaltinis: Fondsk

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