Sankcijos ir kontrsankcijos. Iššūkis ir atsakymas

       Karas Donbase, kurį Kijevas sukėlė po valstybinio perversmo, ir kurį parėmė Jungtinės Valstijos ir Europos Sąjunga, Vakarų yra nuosekliai naudojamas Rusijos demonizavimui, politiniam, ekonominiam ir informaciniam jos spaudimui.

       Sankcijų prieš Rusiją įvedimo iniciatorė ir pagrindinė varomoji jėga yra JAV, kuri iš savo sąjungininkių ir sateličių Europoje reikalauja vis naujų draudimo priemonių Rusijos valdininkams, žurnalistams, finansinėms įstaigoms ir pramonės įmonėms. Tuo pačiu metu imamasi veiksmų destabilizuoti vidaus politinę situaciją Rusijos Federacijoje, kurie užmaskuojami šūkiais apie pilietinės visuomenės ugdymą, piliečių teisių ir laisvių gynimą, kovą prieš korupciją. 2014 metų gegužės 1 d. JAV Kongrese svarstymui buvo pateiktas įstatymo „Aktas dėl Rusijos agresijos užkirtimo – 2014 metų“ projektas (1). Tiesą sakant, tai yra kovos prieš Rusiją planas, įskaitant ir ardomosios veiklos vykdymas.  Be to, dalį šių priemonių planuojama įgyvendinti europiečių rankomis ir pinigais.

       Vakarų Rusijos ekonominio spaudimo pirmosios priemonės ne tik neveiksmingos, bet ir pasiekė visai priešingą efektą. Pagrindinis smūgis teko prie Jungtinių Valstijų prisišliejusioms Europos valstybėms. Taigi, Latvija, kuri prisijungė prie sankcijų, fiksuoja prekybos su Rusija apyvartos sumažėjimą 18% ir dėl jų pagal metų rezultatus planuoja BVP kritimą 10%. Dėl degalinių uždarymo Kryme didelius nuostolius patirs Olandijos ir Didžiosios Britanijos naftos bendrovė „Shell“. Dėl restoranų tinklo uždarymo didžiulius nuostolius prognozuoja JAV „McDonald 's“.

       Rusijoje jau pradėjo svarstyti klausimą dėl galimų atsakomųjų sankcijų. Kol Europa nepajaus, kad žala, kurią ji patirs dėl atsakomųjų sankcijų, viršija abejotiną laimėjimą dėl to, kad europiečiai juda JAV politikos vėžėmis, normalizuoti atsiradusią situaciją vargu ar pavyks. Žinoma, atsakymas į ekonominį karą prieš Rusiją gali būti asimetriškas, nekenkiantis Rusijos ekonomikai. Ar egzistuoja tokia galimybė? Žinoma!Diskusijų socialiniuose tinkluose analizė parodo kai kuriuos tokius originalius sprendimus...

       Vienas iš paprasčiausių yra Vakarų firmų, kurios prisijungė prie kompanijos prieš Rusiją, pakeitimas jų konkurentais iš Rytų. Pavyzdžiui, tą patį „McDonald 's“ tinklą greitai ir svarbiausia noriai pakeičia analogiški Rytų tinklai – japonų, kinų, tajų. Tarp rusų populiarus rytietiškas maistas greitai suras savo vartotoją, o jos poveikis sveikatai tiesiog nesulyginamas su ta žala, kurią žmogaus organizmui padaro garsūs mėsainiai. Tokį pat partnerių pakeitimą logiška būtų įgyvendinti ir su kitomis JAV ir Europos firmomis, kurios prisijungė prie sankcijų prieš Rusiją.

       Kaip originalias „antrosios eilės asimetrines priemones“ socialinių tinklų nuolatiniai lankytojai siūlo panaudoti Jungtinių Valstijų ir jų sąjungininkių mokamus pinigus, kurie skiriami ardomajai veiklai prieš Rusiją. Taigi, organizacijos ir fiziniai asmenys, kurie gavo finansavimą ir dovanas iš užsienio „demokratijos plėtrai“, „pilietinės visuomenės formavimui“, „rinkimų sistemos tobulinimui“, „laisvo žodžio plėtrai“, „žmogaus teisių gynimo veiklai“ ir panašiai, privalo ne tik atsiskaityti už savo veiklą, kaip užsienio agentai, bet ir sumokėti į Rusijos biudžetą 50% iš sponsorių gautų pinigų. Tokie mokesčiai taps papildomu šaltiniu prorusiškų organizacijų užsienyje finansavimui ir tautiečių parėmimui. Tai teisinga: jeigu kažkam leista finansuoti veiklą prieš Rusiją, tegul jam bus leidžiama finansuoti ir Rusijos interesų gynimo veiklą.

      Tačiau ekonominio spaudimo Rusijai mėgėjų jautriausia vieta būtų „trečiosios eilės asimetrinis atsakas“.

       Į Rusijos teisės aktus įvedus sąvoką „valstybė agresorė“, kuri taikoma valstybėms, įvedančioms vienašales sankcijas prieš RF, atsivers platus laukas atsakomiesiems žingsniams. Pavyzdžiui, eilės tarptautinių susitarimų PPO sferoje veikimo sustabdymas. JAV, Europos ir dalies jų išsivysčiusių pramoninių sąjungininkių jautriausia vieta taps Susitarimo dėl autorių teisių (TRIPS) veikimo sustabdymas valstybių agresorių atžvilgiu.  Tuo pačiu Rusija oficialiai neišeina iš šio susitarimo, visiškai laikosi jo nuostatų valstybių atžvilgiu, kurios nedalyvauja sankcijose. Be to, sustabdymas gali būti ne pilnas, o susijęs su atskirais  Susitarimo sektoriais, kurie paliečia ne tik informacijos turinį, autorines teises į muzikos ir  meno kūrinius, bet ir technologijas, programinius produktus ir farmacijos produktus.   

       Bet kuris žmogus, kuris susijęs su derybų PPO viduje tema žino, kaip JAV ir Europos Sąjungai skausmingi autorinių teisių klausimai. Pavyzdžiui, Vakarų farmacijos kompanijų žiauriausia kova prieš analogų jų užpatentuotiems vaistams gamybą kasmet atneša milijonus žmonių gyvybių praradimus valstybėse, kuriose gyventojai negali sau leisti pirkti  „firminius“ vaistus, nes vaistininkams jų valstybėse draudžiama gaminti daug pigesnius vaistus. Farmacijos milžinai sutiko panaikinti draudimus tik 10 rūšių vaistams nuo pavojingiausių ligų – ir tik oficialiai patvirtintoms penkioms neturtingiausioms pasaulio šalims. Ne mažesnis karas vyksta ir programinės įrangos srityje, kurios lydere yra labiausiai nesitaikstanti valstybė agresorė – JAV.

       Pakartosime: sektorinis TRIPS veikimo prieš valstybes sustabdymas būtų jautriausiu Rusijos atsaku į Vakarų ekonomines sankcijas. Ekonominė nauda iš jo smarkiai viršys įvedamų prieš RF Vakarų sankcijų padarinius.

       Žinoma, tai toli gražu nėra baigtinis Rusijos galimų asimetrinių atsakymų sąrašas. Mes čia paminėjome tik tuos, kurie, mūsų požiūriu, yra veiksmingiausi ir turi mažiausią neigiamą poveikį Rusijos ekonomikai. Nuoširdžiai viliamės, kad JAV ir kitų sąjungininkių sankcijų beprotybė bus nutraukta taip ir nepriėjusi prie stadijos, kai Rusijai teks imtis aukščiau nurodytų priemonių.   

Aleksandr‘as Donecki‘s, 2014-08-08

Šaltinis: Fondsk

 

 

Komentarai

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